Second base has typically been one of the most shallow positions in the fantasy baseball world, right up there with shortstop. Most middle infielders can provide speed, but their best assets are typically the glove, which gets little or no reward in the vast majority of fantasy formats. There are two names that jump to the forefront in the fantasy second base conversation, but after that upper echelon, for the first time in recent memory, there is a decent crop of players that I can't say I'd be disappointed to end up with.
So let's jump right in to the rankings.
1. Robinson Cano - New York Yankees Cano has turned in back-to-back 200+ hit/25+ HR seasons, very impressive for a second basemen. Roby has emerged as the premier talent at second base, and it doesn't hurt that he plays in a Yankee lineup that will undoubtedly score runs in bunches.
Expect a .310+ average with 100 runs scored, 100 RBI, and 26 homers.
2. Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies A thumb injury cut a month-and-a-half out of Chase's 2010 campaign, and hurt his numbers as he rushed back too soon and struggled through August (.208 BA, 0 HR). Utley has become a more patient batter, setting a career high for walks with 88 in 2009, and was on pace to finish near that number again last season (65 in 115 games).
I look for Utley to bounce back this season, and return to the 30 homer/ 100 RBI levels of 2008 and 2009. He should also score around 100, and swipe 20 bags with a batting average over .280.
3. Dan Uggla - Atlanta Braves Uggla has been a masher ever since his rookie season of 2006, when he had his career-low of 27 long balls. He has topped the 30 HR plateau in each of the previous four seasons, and consistently both drives-in and scores around 90 runs per season.
The main drawback for Uggla is that batting average. Will he hit around his career-high .287 that he posted in 2010? Or will he hit closer to the sub .250 averages he posted in 2007 and 2009?
I think he winds up in the neighborhood of .265, but benefits from a move to Turner Field with 36 HR and 110 RBI to go along with 95 runs scored.
4. Dustin Pedroia - Boston Red Sox Another player returning from an injury in 2010 is Pedroia, who was the recipient of a screw in his foot. Playing just 75 games last year, taking Dustin this high may feel like a bit of a gamble, and you'd be right to assume that. Pedroia has never hit more than 17 homers, or driven in more than 83 runs. He makes up for that production in his runs scored and stolen base numbers, and sports a .305 career batting average.
Look for Dustin to finish with 16 HR, 115 runs scored, 75 RBI and 25 steals.
5. Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers Speaking of an injury liability, Kinsler has never played in more than 145 games in a season in his five-year career, playing in just 103 last season due to an ankle injury in spring training.
Kinsler showed his 30 HR/30 SB potential in 2009, and a return to those numbers is not out of the question. I anticipate Ian to finish with 26 long balls and 29 steals, as well as 90+ runs scored, a batting average around .275 and 70 RBI.
6. Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds Phillips may never get back to that 30/30 plateau that he surpassed in 2007, but he should be a 20/20 guy after a somewhat disappointing 18/16 season in 2010.
Brandon batted an abysmal .246 with runners in scoring position, over 20 points lower than his three-year average in that situation. That led to a poor showing of just 58 RBI. 13 of his 18 dingers came with no one on base, all trends that he needs to work on in 2011.
Provided his splits return to normal, Phillips should finish with 23 HR, 26 SB, 110 runs scored and 70 RBI. Look for his average to hover around .270.
7. Ben Zobrist - Tampa Bay Rays Zobrist saw his fantasy numbers plummet last season with the exception of his steals, making me think the .297 average that he posted in 2009 was more of a fluke than a break-out season for the 29 year-old. That being said, he has to hit better than the .238 clip he finished with last season, right?
I am inclined to think so. I see the pop returning to his bat with 20 HR, and he will continue to show off his speed with 27 steals. He may never drive in 91 runs, as he did in his All-Star year two seasons ago, but wouldn't 75 RBI and an average of around .255 be a pleasant surprise after a dismal 2010?
8. Rickie Weeks - Milwaukee Brewers At the risk of sounding like a broken record, allow me to discuss the prospects of another oft-injured second basemen in Rickie Weeks. I am lower on Weeks than most other fantasy analysts for one main reason, Rickie cannot stay on the field.
True, he played in 160 games last season, and was impressive, posting career highs in runs (112), homers (29) and RBI (83). Before 2010, however, Weeks had not played in more than 130 games in a season, with a laundry list of injuries as the cause. The former first-round pick has the skills, but can he stay on the field to display them? If he does, he should finish with 90+runs scored, 20+ long balls and 15+ stolen bases, but, given his track record, I wouldn't bet on him playing 150 games in 2011.
9. Martin Prado - Atlanta Braves While Prado will spend the majority of the season shagging fly balls in left, not turning double-plays at second base, he still holds second base eligibility under nearly every fantasy format. After turning in back-to-back seasons with a .307 average, Prado has proven a reliable late-round pick up to fill that middle infield slot.
His home run numbers have climbed the last two seasons (11 in 2009, 15 in 2010) and I think that trend should continue, as the 27 year-old pushes for his first 20 dinger season. In that young Braves lineup, he should have no problem reaching 90 runs scored and 75 RBI, and I anticipate the batting average remaining solidly around .300.
10. Kelly Johnson - Arizona Diamondbacks Johnson exploded into the conversation of top fantasy second basemen by setting career highs in runs scored (93), RBI (71) and homers (26) in his first season with the snakes. While his .284 average may have been partially attributable to luck (as evidenced by a less-exciting career-high of 148 strikeouts), I believe Johnson will still submit a very respectable season in 2011.
I look for an average slightly higher than his career .269 mark, with 80 runs scored, 20 homers and 70 RBI. Throw in 10+ steals and you have all the makings of one of those late-round picks that can make (or sometimes break) a fantasy roster.
~K.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Preview of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards this Sunday
I've been an Oscar lover forever and religiously watch the show every year. I have always, however, questioned how much they really matter. To be honest, ever since Diane Lane lost the Best Actress award for Unfaithful to Nicole Kidman's portrayal in The Hours in 2003, I thought about boycotting the awards all together. A lot of the votes may seem like they're not based on talent, but around politics. With just under 6,000 voting members though, a win signifies that for the most part, the awards go to the people who deserve them. Maybe.
You probably already know what's nominated this year, but the list is below in any case. For Best Picture, the nominees are:
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
My favorites from the nominees are Inception and The Social Network. (Please note though that I haven't yet gotten the chance to view True Grit or Winter's Bone but have heard good things about both.)
The King's Speech is most likely going to win, and it will be a surprise, and probably labeled as an "upset" if it doesn't. Does it deserve the Best Picture award? Depends on what you like, and on a lot of things, really. I thought it was a really good film... well done and kept my interest. I don't think I was as in love with it as other people who saw it. So, maybe I'm in the minority for liking it, and not loving it.
The Social Network has a ton of excellent elements. David Fincher took a story based around a brilliant computer geek's face-smash/thefacebook/facebook (failures and accomplishments) and manipulated it into a dark, sophisticated, intriguing film. The cinematography and music complement the film even further. In my eyes, Fincher deserves the Best Director award.
Inception was the other favorite of mine because it was so different from any other film and because it was just awesome. (It's definitely a little confusing and extremely intense, so if you haven't seen it yet but plan to, I'd recommend not talking or having any distraction throughout the entire movie.) As the viewer, you're immersed in all levels of this dreamworld and even if you have no idea what level you're on (or even any idea about what the hell is going on), it's so worth every minute. The ending was brilliant, and left everyone wondering "does the spinning top fall or keep spinning?" i.e., should I feel happy or is this poor guy still in limbo?! (Christopher Nolan was not nominated in the Best Director category for this film. Um... s-n-u-b!)
Some quick reviews on the other films nominated not already mentioned above...
Black Swan - actually liked this a lot more than I thought I would based on the very strange preview. Really well done and super intense.
The Fighter - I think anyone could like this movie. Great story.
The Kids Are All Right - loved this one! Superbly acted and scripted.
127 Hours - think Cast Away without Wilson. Some people hesitate on this one because of the ending, but it's got a lot going for it, so you can shy your eyes away for a few minutes and enjoy the rest.
Toy Story 3 - totally cute and fun for the whole family.
Now, onto other debatable categories...
For Best Actress in a Leading Role - can this award please be given to Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right? That woman is so talented and totally deserves this award for her incredible performance. Natalie Portman, also very good in Black Swan, will most likely win.
For Best Actor in a Supporting Role - this is the hardest category to pick a winner. The award should either go to Christian Bale for The Fighter or Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech. Both of their performances were top-notch. Bale once again literally becomes his character and Rush's incredible subtleties are so wonderful that while I was watching The King's Speech, I was thinking "he better get the Oscar for this role!" Then again, watching Christian Bale as a burnt-out crackhead versus him as Batman really shows how amazing his acting range is. So, we'll see! I'm torn on this one completely... good luck to both!
For Best Music (Original Score) - for those of you who know me well, I'm trying to take my bias (okay, okay, total love and obsession) for Trent Reznor out of the equation. But, Reznor's score with Atticus Ross for The Social Network was phenomenal. This award belongs either to them, or to Hans Zimmer for his equally phenomenal score for Inception.
I don't have any hands-down favorites for many of the other categories. Can't wait for Sunday to see all the beautiful celebrities and talents presenting the great films of this year and accepting their awards.
~M.
You probably already know what's nominated this year, but the list is below in any case. For Best Picture, the nominees are:
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
My favorites from the nominees are Inception and The Social Network. (Please note though that I haven't yet gotten the chance to view True Grit or Winter's Bone but have heard good things about both.)
The King's Speech is most likely going to win, and it will be a surprise, and probably labeled as an "upset" if it doesn't. Does it deserve the Best Picture award? Depends on what you like, and on a lot of things, really. I thought it was a really good film... well done and kept my interest. I don't think I was as in love with it as other people who saw it. So, maybe I'm in the minority for liking it, and not loving it.
The Social Network has a ton of excellent elements. David Fincher took a story based around a brilliant computer geek's face-smash/thefacebook/facebook (failures and accomplishments) and manipulated it into a dark, sophisticated, intriguing film. The cinematography and music complement the film even further. In my eyes, Fincher deserves the Best Director award.
Inception was the other favorite of mine because it was so different from any other film and because it was just awesome. (It's definitely a little confusing and extremely intense, so if you haven't seen it yet but plan to, I'd recommend not talking or having any distraction throughout the entire movie.) As the viewer, you're immersed in all levels of this dreamworld and even if you have no idea what level you're on (or even any idea about what the hell is going on), it's so worth every minute. The ending was brilliant, and left everyone wondering "does the spinning top fall or keep spinning?" i.e., should I feel happy or is this poor guy still in limbo?! (Christopher Nolan was not nominated in the Best Director category for this film. Um... s-n-u-b!)
Some quick reviews on the other films nominated not already mentioned above...
Black Swan - actually liked this a lot more than I thought I would based on the very strange preview. Really well done and super intense.
The Fighter - I think anyone could like this movie. Great story.
The Kids Are All Right - loved this one! Superbly acted and scripted.
127 Hours - think Cast Away without Wilson. Some people hesitate on this one because of the ending, but it's got a lot going for it, so you can shy your eyes away for a few minutes and enjoy the rest.
Toy Story 3 - totally cute and fun for the whole family.
Now, onto other debatable categories...
For Best Actress in a Leading Role - can this award please be given to Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right? That woman is so talented and totally deserves this award for her incredible performance. Natalie Portman, also very good in Black Swan, will most likely win.
For Best Actor in a Supporting Role - this is the hardest category to pick a winner. The award should either go to Christian Bale for The Fighter or Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech. Both of their performances were top-notch. Bale once again literally becomes his character and Rush's incredible subtleties are so wonderful that while I was watching The King's Speech, I was thinking "he better get the Oscar for this role!" Then again, watching Christian Bale as a burnt-out crackhead versus him as Batman really shows how amazing his acting range is. So, we'll see! I'm torn on this one completely... good luck to both!
For Best Music (Original Score) - for those of you who know me well, I'm trying to take my bias (okay, okay, total love and obsession) for Trent Reznor out of the equation. But, Reznor's score with Atticus Ross for The Social Network was phenomenal. This award belongs either to them, or to Hans Zimmer for his equally phenomenal score for Inception.
I don't have any hands-down favorites for many of the other categories. Can't wait for Sunday to see all the beautiful celebrities and talents presenting the great films of this year and accepting their awards.
~M.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Fantasy Forecast: First Base
For all the talk of 'The Year of the Pitcher" in 2010, one position remained largely unaffected by the improved hurling - First Base. Long the linchpin of a productive fantasy offense, first base has solidified itself as the deepest reservoir of offensive numbers in all of fantasy baseball, and it begins at the top of the list, with Albert Pujols.
Allow me to take a moment to opine on Pujols current contract status. As it stands now, the nine-time All-Star has broken off talks with the St. Louis Cardinals, the only team he has ever played for. He is going to play out his last season with them, for an economical $16 million dollars, and then reopen talks after the season. Let me just say here that the Cards would be silly to let him get out of town. I don't care if he wants $30 mil a season, you need to keep the three-time NL MVP, and face of your franchise, around until he retires. He will be worth every penny, both on the field, and because he gives so much of his salary back to the community.
Without further side-tracking, here is my list of the top-10 fantasy first basemen for 2011.
1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals This man is in a class by himself. Let me rattle off some stats for you, in case you have been under a rock for the last 10 years: Pujols is the first player in history to hit at least 30 home runs in his first 10 seasons in the league. He has never had a batting average lower than .312, never gone deep less than 34 times in a season, never driven in less than 103 runs and never scored fewer than 99 runs himself. In short, his patchwork "worst" season would still make him among the most valuable fantasy baseball assets in any season. The guy even stole 14 bases last season! He does it all! Not bad for a former 13th round pick.
Look for business as usual for The Machine this season. .320/40/120 with 12 steals and 110 runs scored, to boot. If you have the first pick, TAKE HIM! or regret it the rest of the season.
2. Joey Votto - Cininnatti Reds I originally had Votto, the reigning NL MVP, third on my list, but with some off-the-field issues arising for my No. 2, Votto slides up a spot. He does not have the track record that Pujols has, but he is just as big of a threat to impact all five offensive fantasy categories.
A career .314 hitter, the 27 year-old just broke the 30 HR plateau for the first time last season. He has upped his walk totals in each season, and there is no reason to think that his skills should decline this year.
I expect Votto to top 35 HR and 110 RBI again, with a batting average around .320. He also picks great spots to swipe a bag here and there, and his double-digit steal potential sets him apart from the rest of the pack.
3. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers A DUI charge early Thursday morning (Feb. 17th) , coupled with a history of alcohol abuse dropped the Venezuelan out of my No. 2 ranking. Pending any sort of suspension from the league, he could tumble further.
Miggy has been as steady as they come in his eight-year stint in the majors thus far, cranking out 30+ HR season after 30+ HR season. He doesn't steal as often, or as successfully as he used to, and these off the field issues are a concern, but I still feel that he will produce if given the opportunity.
Provided he can climb out of the scotch bottle he fell into on Wednesday night, Cabrera should have no trouble turning in another 35 dingers, and 115 RBI with an average around his career .313. If you draft him, beware. His mind may not be focused on baseball, especially early in the season as this DUI situation plays out.
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox A-Gonz has averaged 32 HR and 100 RBI over the last five seasons, all played in cavernous PetCO Park. With his move to the red stockings this season, Gonzalez gets his first chance to bat in the heart of a formidable lineup, and the implications are very promising.
Heath is not a major concern for the 28 year-old, who has played in no fewer than 156 games since becoming a full-time starter in 2006. So the real question becomes, what exactly will Gonzalez do with 575+ at bats in the Sox lineup? Coming off of a season where he hit 31 homers and added 101 RBI, I estimate that both of those numbers take a jump now that he will be routinely crushing balls over the Green Monster.
I expect him to bat in the .285 neighborhood with 40+ long balls and 110+ RBI.
5. Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox I wrestled with listing Youk with the third basemen, as that is the position he will be manning this season for the Beantowners. Yet, since this is a draft preview, and he won't be eligible to fill the 3B slot in your fantasy lineup until at least the day after opening day (depending on your league's eligibility rules) I have him here in my first base preview.
Despite his 2010 season ending early with a thumb injury, all reports indicate that Youk is primed and ready to roll into the 2011 season. He has kept his batting average north of .300 for three straight seasons now, while displaying 25+ home run power if he remains in the lineup (19 HR in 102 games last year).
I expect Youkilis to make a push for 30 HR this season to go along with a .300 average. Look for him to drive in close to 110 runs, and score almost 100 more himself.
6. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies Howard nursed an injured ankle for a long stretch of the 2010 season, which caused him to miss some games, and also resulted in a drop in his power numbers (31 HR/108 RBI). It is because he struggled through an injury, not merely a slump, that I am not ready to write-off Howard as "on the decline" as many of the other fantasy analysts are.
True, Ryan may never hit 58 long balls again, as he did in his 2006 MVP campaign, but I think a return to the 40 homer, 130 RBI threshold is more than just a possibility. Howard will have to adjust to batting without Jayson Werth behind him, so the average may dip a bit, but the Phillies offense should still be among the best in the majors, let alone the National League.
I am thinking 39 dingers, 123 RBI and an average in the low .270s.
7. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees Tex was unable to overcome his trademarked slow start last season, posting a career-low .256 batting average. The 30 year-old has surpassed 30 HR in six of his seven MLB seasons, despite playing on four different teams over that span.
Can his batting average survive another miserable .136 average in April? Probably not, but I do think he can improve on that showing from 2010.
Teixeira's average will be around .275, below his career .286 mark. As he enters his third season with the Yanks, look for Mark to supply 32 HR, bring in 110 runs and score another 100.
8. Prince Fielder - Milwaulkee Brewers Much like Tex, Prince's averaged plummeted last season, and his homer and run production numbers suffered as well. Fielder seems to be following an up-and-down trend across the board, which may indicate that he will be on the upswing again this season. That, coupled with the fact that he is in the final year of his contract, and the 268-pound vegetarian looks primed to bounce-back in 2011.
Numbers in the vicinity of .270/40/115.
9. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins After a knee to the head ended his 2010 campaign prematurely, many fantasy owners were forced to scramble to replace MVP caliber numbers this big Canadian turned in over the first half of the season. News of lingering after-effects of the head injury have tempered expectations for the 29 year-old heading into 2011.
Provided he is ready for opening day, I have no problem listing Morneau as a top 10 option at first base. He batted .345 with 18 dingers and 56 RBI to start last season, and while the batting average is not sustainable, the power threat is real.
I anticipate a .285/30/110 type of performance from Justin, just as long as he can keep his noggin out of the way of oncoming traffic.
10. Adam Dunn - Chicago White Sox One thing is certain with Dunn, no one will put more weight behind the ball than this 285-pound behemoth. Just look at his HR totals for the last eight seasons, 32 being the low point, 46 the high.
The constant knock on the 31 year-old has been his batting average (and strikeout totals). The long and the short of Dunn's situation is he will get you homers (I predict 40 for him this season) but with a batting average in the high .250s, is the reward worth the price?
~K.
Allow me to take a moment to opine on Pujols current contract status. As it stands now, the nine-time All-Star has broken off talks with the St. Louis Cardinals, the only team he has ever played for. He is going to play out his last season with them, for an economical $16 million dollars, and then reopen talks after the season. Let me just say here that the Cards would be silly to let him get out of town. I don't care if he wants $30 mil a season, you need to keep the three-time NL MVP, and face of your franchise, around until he retires. He will be worth every penny, both on the field, and because he gives so much of his salary back to the community.
Without further side-tracking, here is my list of the top-10 fantasy first basemen for 2011.
1. Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals This man is in a class by himself. Let me rattle off some stats for you, in case you have been under a rock for the last 10 years: Pujols is the first player in history to hit at least 30 home runs in his first 10 seasons in the league. He has never had a batting average lower than .312, never gone deep less than 34 times in a season, never driven in less than 103 runs and never scored fewer than 99 runs himself. In short, his patchwork "worst" season would still make him among the most valuable fantasy baseball assets in any season. The guy even stole 14 bases last season! He does it all! Not bad for a former 13th round pick.
Look for business as usual for The Machine this season. .320/40/120 with 12 steals and 110 runs scored, to boot. If you have the first pick, TAKE HIM! or regret it the rest of the season.
2. Joey Votto - Cininnatti Reds I originally had Votto, the reigning NL MVP, third on my list, but with some off-the-field issues arising for my No. 2, Votto slides up a spot. He does not have the track record that Pujols has, but he is just as big of a threat to impact all five offensive fantasy categories.
A career .314 hitter, the 27 year-old just broke the 30 HR plateau for the first time last season. He has upped his walk totals in each season, and there is no reason to think that his skills should decline this year.
I expect Votto to top 35 HR and 110 RBI again, with a batting average around .320. He also picks great spots to swipe a bag here and there, and his double-digit steal potential sets him apart from the rest of the pack.
3. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers A DUI charge early Thursday morning (Feb. 17th) , coupled with a history of alcohol abuse dropped the Venezuelan out of my No. 2 ranking. Pending any sort of suspension from the league, he could tumble further.
Miggy has been as steady as they come in his eight-year stint in the majors thus far, cranking out 30+ HR season after 30+ HR season. He doesn't steal as often, or as successfully as he used to, and these off the field issues are a concern, but I still feel that he will produce if given the opportunity.
Provided he can climb out of the scotch bottle he fell into on Wednesday night, Cabrera should have no trouble turning in another 35 dingers, and 115 RBI with an average around his career .313. If you draft him, beware. His mind may not be focused on baseball, especially early in the season as this DUI situation plays out.
4. Adrian Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox A-Gonz has averaged 32 HR and 100 RBI over the last five seasons, all played in cavernous PetCO Park. With his move to the red stockings this season, Gonzalez gets his first chance to bat in the heart of a formidable lineup, and the implications are very promising.
Heath is not a major concern for the 28 year-old, who has played in no fewer than 156 games since becoming a full-time starter in 2006. So the real question becomes, what exactly will Gonzalez do with 575+ at bats in the Sox lineup? Coming off of a season where he hit 31 homers and added 101 RBI, I estimate that both of those numbers take a jump now that he will be routinely crushing balls over the Green Monster.
I expect him to bat in the .285 neighborhood with 40+ long balls and 110+ RBI.
5. Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox I wrestled with listing Youk with the third basemen, as that is the position he will be manning this season for the Beantowners. Yet, since this is a draft preview, and he won't be eligible to fill the 3B slot in your fantasy lineup until at least the day after opening day (depending on your league's eligibility rules) I have him here in my first base preview.
Despite his 2010 season ending early with a thumb injury, all reports indicate that Youk is primed and ready to roll into the 2011 season. He has kept his batting average north of .300 for three straight seasons now, while displaying 25+ home run power if he remains in the lineup (19 HR in 102 games last year).
I expect Youkilis to make a push for 30 HR this season to go along with a .300 average. Look for him to drive in close to 110 runs, and score almost 100 more himself.
6. Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies Howard nursed an injured ankle for a long stretch of the 2010 season, which caused him to miss some games, and also resulted in a drop in his power numbers (31 HR/108 RBI). It is because he struggled through an injury, not merely a slump, that I am not ready to write-off Howard as "on the decline" as many of the other fantasy analysts are.
True, Ryan may never hit 58 long balls again, as he did in his 2006 MVP campaign, but I think a return to the 40 homer, 130 RBI threshold is more than just a possibility. Howard will have to adjust to batting without Jayson Werth behind him, so the average may dip a bit, but the Phillies offense should still be among the best in the majors, let alone the National League.
I am thinking 39 dingers, 123 RBI and an average in the low .270s.
7. Mark Teixeira - New York Yankees Tex was unable to overcome his trademarked slow start last season, posting a career-low .256 batting average. The 30 year-old has surpassed 30 HR in six of his seven MLB seasons, despite playing on four different teams over that span.
Can his batting average survive another miserable .136 average in April? Probably not, but I do think he can improve on that showing from 2010.
Teixeira's average will be around .275, below his career .286 mark. As he enters his third season with the Yanks, look for Mark to supply 32 HR, bring in 110 runs and score another 100.
8. Prince Fielder - Milwaulkee Brewers Much like Tex, Prince's averaged plummeted last season, and his homer and run production numbers suffered as well. Fielder seems to be following an up-and-down trend across the board, which may indicate that he will be on the upswing again this season. That, coupled with the fact that he is in the final year of his contract, and the 268-pound vegetarian looks primed to bounce-back in 2011.
Numbers in the vicinity of .270/40/115.
9. Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins After a knee to the head ended his 2010 campaign prematurely, many fantasy owners were forced to scramble to replace MVP caliber numbers this big Canadian turned in over the first half of the season. News of lingering after-effects of the head injury have tempered expectations for the 29 year-old heading into 2011.
Provided he is ready for opening day, I have no problem listing Morneau as a top 10 option at first base. He batted .345 with 18 dingers and 56 RBI to start last season, and while the batting average is not sustainable, the power threat is real.
I anticipate a .285/30/110 type of performance from Justin, just as long as he can keep his noggin out of the way of oncoming traffic.
10. Adam Dunn - Chicago White Sox One thing is certain with Dunn, no one will put more weight behind the ball than this 285-pound behemoth. Just look at his HR totals for the last eight seasons, 32 being the low point, 46 the high.
The constant knock on the 31 year-old has been his batting average (and strikeout totals). The long and the short of Dunn's situation is he will get you homers (I predict 40 for him this season) but with a batting average in the high .250s, is the reward worth the price?
~K.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Fantasy Forecast: Catcher
As the fantasy world goes, the contributions from the backstop position have been largely forgettable. Outside of your All-Stars, there usually weren’t many candidates that could both provide some power, and not kill your batting average, all while staying healthy. Heck, I remember drafting Piazza in 2003, and thinking, “Finally! I get a decent catcher,” only to watch him injure his groin and play in just 68 games.
For the first time in years, catcher is a position with some depth, thanks to an influx of young talent and a solid core of established starters. Here is my list of the top 10 fantasy catchers for the 2010 season.
1. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins Mauer’s batting average dropped by 38 points from his MVP campaign of 2009, so why do I have zero hesitation in naming him the top fantasy catcher in 2011? Because he still hit .327, and finished third for the AL batting crown. That ranked him tops among catchers with a minimum of 450 at-bats by a long-shot.
While Mauer may never hit 28 homers again, I do think he will hit more than the nine he tallied last season. Remember, he had to adjust to a new home ballpark last year. After spending that first season hitting only one homer out of Target Field, he should have made some adjustments much like David Wright did for Citi Field in Flushing.
For Mauer, a fourth batting title in six years is not out of the question, and I look for him to contribute at least 14 home runs and 85 RBI, making him the cream of the catching crop. Look for him to go in the first 15-20 picks.
2. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers Martinez is not a bad consolation prize, should you miss on Mauer. In five of the last six seasons, V-Mart has hit at least .301-16-79. 2008 was the aberration year, but he only had 266 at-bats so I feel comfortable dismissing it.
Martinez has moved from the friendly confines of Fenway, to the more-spacious Comerica park, so repeating his 20 long ball season from 2010 is probably not going to happen. He does get to bat at the heart of a good lineup, so the run production should continue. Jim Leyland will also be sure to rotate him through at DH, so that should keep the 32 year-old Venezuelan fresh and healthy.
I project Victor to hit around his career .300 average with homer numbers in the high teens and RBI numbers in the 80-90 range. V-Mart will be drafted before the 40th pick.
3. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants I know, I know… ranking someone with 423 career at-bats this high may seem sort of crazy... especially given the sophomore slumps experienced by young catchers like Matt Wieters and Geovany Soto recently, but I am a Posey believer.
I doubt that he continues to hit at a .305 clip, but .280 is not out of the question, and the baby-faced backstop has shown legit 20+ power at the plate. If the rest of the Giants lineup can manage to get on base ahead of him, he could drive in 90 runs.
Look for Posey to get scooped up in the 40-50th pick range.
4. Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves McCann’s home-run and RBI numbers have remained incredibly consistent over his five full years in the majors. What has jumped around has been his batting average, which dropped to a career-low .269 last season.
McCann did walk 25 more times in 2010 than he did in 2009, which is a positive, but he also struck out a career-high 98 times.
For a catcher that provides 18+ homers and drives in 70+ runs per season, I’ll gladly slot him as the fourth catcher off the board, but if his average continues to dip it would be difficult to maintain that offensive output.
5. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians It is rumored that Santana is healing-up quite well from his off-season surgery to repair a torn LCL in his left knee. He suffered that injury in a collision at home plate with Ryan Kalish last season, and the Tribe supporters lost the most exciting player in an Indians uniform since Willie Mays Hayes and Rick Vaughn, at least for the 2010 season.
Santana has all the tools to a wildly successful backstop, and, at age 24, is really just getting his start in the league in 2011. My question is, which Carlos will show up? The kid who tore the cover off of the ball in 58 June at-bats, hitting .345 with four long balls and 22 RBI, or the kid who struggled through 86 July at-bats with a .203 average and 20 strikeouts?
I believe the switch-hitting Santana will change his evil ways (see what I did there?) and turn in a solid fantasy season as long as he can stay healthy, and hit better than .145 against left-handed pitching. Look for an average in the .260 neighborhood with 15 homers and 60-70 RBI.
6. Mike Napoli – Texas Rangers Napoli must have felt like a red-headed step-child in January when he was traded from the Angels to the Blue Jays, and then, a day later, delt from Toronto to Texas. Once the ballpark in Arlington became his new home, however, he must have been pretty happy with the final circumstances.
He has the chance to play in a true hitter’s ballpark, so he could be the only catcher to swat 30 homers this season. He is also going to hit at the heart of the lineup that won the American League last season, and remains mainly unchanged on the offensive side of the ball.
Napoli is 29, so he may be at the point of his career where he will start to wear down, but Ron Washington has the luxury of rotating him at first base and DH to keep his knees fresh, and keep his bat in the lineup. With the 500+ plate appearances I have him slated for, he should reach the 25 homer-90 RBI plateaus, but will he keep the strikeouts to a minimum to improve on his .238 batting average from a year ago?
7. Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs Soto was a hot commodity in 2009 after hitting .285 with 23 homers and 86 RBI in his rookie season with the Cubbies. Many fantasy players took him as early as the fourth or fifth round, and were shocked when he batted .218 in his sophomore season, and saw his power numbers get cut in half (11 HR, 47 RBI).
Soto bounced back last season, submitting 17 dingers and a respectable .280 average, albeit with too-low run-production numbers (53 RBI). The most promising thing, for me, was his .393 on-base percentage, almost 30 points higher than his break-out rookie campaign.
I look for Soto to have another 2010-like season, and put that ghastly 2009 even further in the rear-view with a .275 average, 20 HR and 70 RBI, provided he can stay in the lineup.
8. Miguel Montero – Arizona Diamondbacks Monero doesn’t have the pop of many of the men I have listed above him, but a .294/16/59 season two years ago leads me to believe that he is a solid option at catcher in all formats. That knee surgery that cut into his 2010 season is behind him, and if he can get back to the 400 at-bat plateau, he could be a surprising mid-late round sleeper.
Montero should finish with a average in the high .260s and power numbers of 18 homers and 65 RBI.
9. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles Wieters is another case of ‘which guy will show up this season?’ After becoming a draft-day darling in 2010 following a breakout rookie year (.288/9/43) Wieters slumped through his sophomore season, seeing his average tumble 39 points. His power numbers were up, with 11 long balls and 55 RBI, but he also had 92 more at-bats in his second season.
So after becoming the next “big thing” at catcher two years ago, the 24 year-old seems to be the latest “forgotten thing” heading into this season. Without a body of work to properly judge on, it is tough to determine which Matt Wieters is the real Matt Wieters, but I am inclined to think that it is the former.
The 6-foot-5 plate-minder clearly has the physical tools to be a force at the plate, he just has to mentally catch up to the pitching in the league. I project Matt to finish with 15 HR and at least 60 RBI, and hopefully that batting average can stay north of .260 this season.
10. Kurt Suzuki – Oakland Athletics Suzuki was waiver-wire gold for many players in 2009, posting 15 HR/88 RBI and even swiping eight bags. While he regressed a bit last season (13/71 and a miserable .242 average), I still feel he deserves a mention at the bottom of the list of viable fantasy catchers, because the drop-off of talent after the Hawaiian is pretty steep.
I expect a batting average in the low .270s with HR numbers in the low teens and 65 RBI.
~K.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Review of "The Big C" - TV Series on Showtime
"The Big C" Gets an A
The second season of "The Big C" is on its way to Showtime. But before I get ahead of myself, let's recap season 1...
To sum up my review of the first season in one word... AMAZING!
The script and acting performances are top-notch. I mean, this show might be perfect. I laughed, cried, and was overall amazed. Every episode leads you further into one of the main character's struggles, usually Cathy (Laura Linney), and always ends on a very emotional note.
You might know the premise of the show, but in case not, the story is centered around the life of Cathy Jamison, a middle-aged wife, mother, and high school teacher who has recently discovered she has cancer with about a year to live.
The big plot point is that she's hiding her illness from her somewhat estranged husband and teenage son. She's also hiding it from her flat-out-weirdo brother (who is a phenomenally scripted and acted character, played by John Benjamin Hickey). His dialogue is hysterical and his character provides Cathy a support she doesn't quite have in any of her other relationships. Other supporting characters include the seemingly crazy neighbor across the street, the jealous student, and the flirty doctor, who all force Cathy to question who she wants to be for the remainder of her life.
It's not all sad drama, though. Prepare for a steamy affair (or two) and hilarious one-liners.
If you don't have Showtime, wait for Netflix or catch this on-demand at a friend's house. You won't regret it. And a Big Congrats to Laura Linney for a very well-deserved Golden Globe win for Best Actress in the Television Series (Musical or Comedy) category.
~M.
The second season of "The Big C" is on its way to Showtime. But before I get ahead of myself, let's recap season 1...
To sum up my review of the first season in one word... AMAZING!
The script and acting performances are top-notch. I mean, this show might be perfect. I laughed, cried, and was overall amazed. Every episode leads you further into one of the main character's struggles, usually Cathy (Laura Linney), and always ends on a very emotional note.
You might know the premise of the show, but in case not, the story is centered around the life of Cathy Jamison, a middle-aged wife, mother, and high school teacher who has recently discovered she has cancer with about a year to live.
The big plot point is that she's hiding her illness from her somewhat estranged husband and teenage son. She's also hiding it from her flat-out-weirdo brother (who is a phenomenally scripted and acted character, played by John Benjamin Hickey). His dialogue is hysterical and his character provides Cathy a support she doesn't quite have in any of her other relationships. Other supporting characters include the seemingly crazy neighbor across the street, the jealous student, and the flirty doctor, who all force Cathy to question who she wants to be for the remainder of her life.
It's not all sad drama, though. Prepare for a steamy affair (or two) and hilarious one-liners.
If you don't have Showtime, wait for Netflix or catch this on-demand at a friend's house. You won't regret it. And a Big Congrats to Laura Linney for a very well-deserved Golden Globe win for Best Actress in the Television Series (Musical or Comedy) category.
~M.
Hey readers...
Hey everyone (or just the two of us for now)...
We're starting to work on this blog, which will incorporate news, reviews and our thoughts about all things entertainment (sports, movies/television/music, etc). Kyle will be writing about Sports, and Meredith about Media. We're aiming to keep this as updated as possible and hopefully this can be a helpful tool when you're bored or want something to read.
Thanks for following!
~M & K.
We're starting to work on this blog, which will incorporate news, reviews and our thoughts about all things entertainment (sports, movies/television/music, etc). Kyle will be writing about Sports, and Meredith about Media. We're aiming to keep this as updated as possible and hopefully this can be a helpful tool when you're bored or want something to read.
Thanks for following!
~M & K.
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